This is actually a pretty interesting time for fake IDs as every state is working towards compliance with the Real ID act. The transition from laminated PVC IDs to either Teslin or Polycarbonate IDs means there are fakes for both the old IDs and the latest ones being issued. The short answer to your question is that the most commonly faked states are the ones with the least secure licenses so Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Maine, New Hampshire, Delaware and New Jersey surge to the front. Ohio, Illinois, Missouri and Florida to a slightly lesser degree (at least regionally. I’m on the East Coast.) But most, if not all of those states have issued a Real ID compliant ID made of either Teslin or Polycarbonate. So now we’re seeing a mix of old and new examples. It is, in my opinion, still relatively simple to detect a fake provided you are training and have a desire to catch them at least as far as bouncers are concerned using a loupe and an UV light. I imagine the task is much more difficult for waiters and waitresses and the like. Many of these IDs look real. You have to know what to look for to detect the fake. For example, here are two of the new Teslin IDs from Rhode Island. The top is real the bottom is fake:
As you can see there are some subtle differences visible, but imagine working a door at night with one hundred people in line or working at a restaurant on a busy night. My guess is the fake would would work without enhanced scrutiny. So which states are being faked is constantly changing. I’m looking forward to seeing more of the newer IDs as they get counterfeited and guards confiscate them.